国务院提出“稳增长”精神后各部委迅速落实，但考虑到目前的资源条件约束，预计政策上也难有特别大的作为，总体上体现温和，对经济以扶而不是以刺激为主。海外还面临希腊选举的考验。综合来看，政策温和背景下，大盘以震荡为主，如果房地产放松、降息及希腊选举顺利，那么大盘还有一定的向上动力。
操作上，考虑大盘以震荡为主，建议2400点以上适当控制仓位，等待大盘选择方向；2300点以下可以积极加仓。
风险因素：政策超预期宽松(房地产放松或者降息等)、西班牙步希腊后尘带来欧债问题的恶化。
□看好的板块与机会：
(1)一些改革受益的行业：如地产、非银行金融等。
(2)主题投资：在大盘震荡背景下，各种类型的(或刺激消费、或新增投资等)稳增长政策有可能对相关受益个股带来刺激。
□看好行业
机械行业：预期有所改善；维持“看好”评级；关注个股：中联重科(10.48,0.00,0.00%)、海陆重工(14.29,0.00,0.00%)、张化机、郑煤机(12.86,0.00,0.00%)、晋西车轴(14.59,0.00,0.00%)等。
电子行业：关注电子周期股的投资机会；维持“看好”评级；关注个股：聚飞光电(23.960,0.00,0.00%)、海康威视(46.58,0.00,0.00%)、欣旺达(12.420,0.00,0.00%)、安洁科技(39.38,0.00,0.00%)、鸿利光电(9.900,0.00,0.00%)、星星科技(11.670,0.00,0.00%)。
建筑行业：继续看好精装修建筑装饰公司；维持“看好”(上调)评级；关注个股：中国化学(6.41,0.00,0.00%)、亚厦股份(36.89,0.00,0.00%)、广田股份(16.00,0.00,0.00%)、洪涛股份(13.55,0.00,0.00%)、达实智能、中国水电(4.47,0.00,0.00%)。中信证券(13.13,0.00,0.00%)
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